Claim says Arctic Sea ice isn’t changing, but truth is the polar opposite
George Driver
June 04, 2025
WHAT WAS CLAIMED
On average, the area of Arctic sea ice during summer and winter has never changed.
OUR VERDICT
False. Satellite data shows the extent of Arctic sea ice has been steadily shrinking in both winter and summer for nearly 50 years.
AAP FactCheck – The average area of Arctic sea ice has been steadily declining for decades, contrary to a claim on social media that it has “never changed”.
Satellite images recorded since the late 1970s show the level of ice during both the winter peak and summer minimum has significantly shrunk and experts told AAP FactCheck the claim is “completely wrong”.
The claim appears in a Facebook post1 featuring an image available for purchase on Shutterstock2.
The post’s caption reads: “The Arctic, which every leftie uses as their Global warming scam barometer, is smaller than the entire continent of Australia during Summer, and over all recorded winters reaches an area within +/ – 10% of 1.8 times the size of Australia every Winter.”
It includes a quote that AAP FactCheck could find no trace of online.
The quote, which is not attributed to any source, says the Arctic’s maximum sea ice extent is roughly 1.8 times larger than Australia, while its summer extent is smaller than the Australian continent.
The post concludes: “On average, the size of the Arctic during summer and winter has never changed.”
Experts told AAP FactCheck the claim is false, with decades of data showing the extent of Arctic sea ice has been shrinking in both winter and summer.
University of Tasmania polar ice expert Amelie Meyer3 described the Facebook post as “completely wrong”.
“Arctic sea ice extent has experienced very large declines over recent decades, with stronger reductions in summer,” Dr Meyer told AAP FactCheck.
“While winter sea ice extent has also diminished significantly, the rate of decline in winter is slower compared to summer.”
Norwegian Polar Institute senior research scientist Mats Granskog4 told AAP FactCheck satellite data since the 1970s has shown the shrinking of Arctic sea ice is “an undisputed fact”.
Data also shows the ice has become thinner over time, he said.
NASA satellites5 have recorded Arctic sea ice levels since 1979.
Tracking the minimum sea ice extent in September each year, they have recorded an average rate of decline of 12.2 per cent per decade.
Annual figures show a marked decline between 1996 and 2012, with significant variation since.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration6 has reported that the winter maximum sea ice extent each March has declined at a rate of about 2.5 per cent per decade since satellite records began in 1979.
Significantly, in March 2025 the National Snow and Ice Data Center7 noted the lowest peak ice levels since 1979.
Figures compiled by the Polar Science Center8 also show the volume of sea ice has steadily declined.
AAP FactCheck9 has previously debunked multiple claims that have misrepresented changes in Arctic and Antarctic ice levels.
AAP FactCheck is an accredited member of the International Fact-Checking Network10. To keep up with our latest fact checks, follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Threads11, X, BlueSky12, TikTok13 and YouTube14. (AAP)
